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post #21 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-19-2019, 02:43 PM
 
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PJ - There is much truth in your assessment of reality - but nobody likes to hear they have an ugly baby. I mentored high school kids in FIRST robotics for many years to expose them to STEM careers. Some come into this program having never touched a hand tool or knowledge of which way to turn a wrench. Yes, we all had to learn that - but I'd bet almost everyone that reads this forum learned that by age 7 (not 17). This does not paint too bright a future for a mechanically savvy workforce, not to mention the future impact of our hobby. A sad time ahead indeed.
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post #22 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-19-2019, 11:19 PM
 
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PJ - There is much truth in your assessment of reality - but nobody likes to hear they have an ugly baby. I mentored high school kids in FIRST robotics for many years to expose them to STEM careers. Some come into this program having never touched a hand tool or knowledge of which way to turn a wrench. Yes, we all had to learn that - but I'd bet almost everyone that reads this forum learned that by age 7 (not 17). This does not paint too bright a future for a mechanically savvy workforce, not to mention the future impact of our hobby. A sad time ahead indeed.
Yep, mechanical skills and aptitude are being replaced by the computer and the electronically literate. Our cars that we grew up with are going the way of the horse replaced by machines, the electric trolley replaced by the bus, the steam train replaced by the diesel, and the piston engine planes replaced by the jet.

It is not that cars, or private modes of transportation will disappear, but they will be replaced with more advanced technology which we are now seeing. Hybrid and electric cars will be the wave of the future. Electric cars have been around since the advent of the automobile. They just were not practical or economical when compared to the gasoline auto. But I see that that will change due in part to the computer/electronics age we are witnessing and pushed along by the tree huggers, global warming believers, and those who fear we are destroying the earth with our fossil fuels. Not a bad thing I suppose.

But it is coming because there is a generation that looks forward to the electronics & electrification of vehicles that are self driving and "safer" so you can enjoy texting, tweeting, facebooking, shopping on amazon, or surfing the net, or watch TV while the car drives you to work or any other place you desire. Why waste your time driving when you NEED to stay connected to the outside world while inside your car. Paying attention to driving is not getting the latest scoop on facebook or taking in the Vue. And better yet, why drive at all when we are entering a stage where many things can be ordered off the internet and brought right to you like pizza, your groceries, medications, or dog grooming? Need to change a light bulb? Just call a specialist who will come to you and change it out for you and then accepts that effortless swipe of your credit or debit card. So simple right? And you don't have to miss a single minute of that drama that is taking place on facebook or step away from the computer game you were playing. Modern society is churning out adult children who don't want responsibility, don't want to work, feel entitled, and believe the world revolves around them and their needs - and just want to have fun and spend money.

People in the near future will be rummaging through antique stores looking at and picking up tools and equipment that is very familiar to us as they say "what do you think this was used for?" because they honestly won't know, anymore than we know when picking up something old not familiar to us in our generation and asking the same thing - but it was common back then and everyone knew what it was, like tongs used to pick up ice blocks that you used in your ice box to keep food cold (beer anyway LOL). Tongs? ice blocks? ice box???? Nooooo Way. How could anyone live like that?

The world is changing and we are in the midst of a new direction that is taking us into the future. Its called evolution.
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post #23 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-20-2019, 11:47 AM
 
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And what ever you do do knock the Tesla. Elon did the same thing with the Tesla John did for the GTO. I happen to have a Model S and it is the the most advanced car I have ever owned. It doesn't hurt that the thing has 705 HP either and will give you whip lash when you stomp on the pedal, and can take a corner at 65 and stick. If you have not schedule a test drive of a P100D. It is absolutely absurd. You absolutely need to do it. It handles like it is on rails. It is an incredible machine and I absolutely can see myself keeping this thing on the road when I am 90. If I make it that long. Plus it is an American built car and get this..... My Tesla was built in the same exact factory that my silver mist 1964 GTO was built in 50 years almost to the month later.
Good grief, Tony, that P100D costs $135,000! They would look at my wife and me and want a large four figure deposit for a test drive since we look our age; the age of pensioners who had Masters degrees that were not MA's or engineering. It took a lot of personal finagling of our money to come up with $23k for my wife's Ford Escape SE to avoid payments. I think its neat that you are able to have a really nice, advanced car like that (that was actually built in the plant your '64 was built in), but all that advanced technology scares me. Are there really technicians (old days: mechanics) in local dealerships who can competently repair those cars?

Anyway best of luck with your '64, that was the first model GTO I ever rode in (Feb 1964) when I was 16. Back then it was an amazing car!
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post #24 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-20-2019, 11:56 AM
 
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To go along with Jim's post #22 , here is a link to the disappearance of local speed shops, I remember them well. There were three of them here, gone by the late '80's.

Speed shops - PY Online Forums
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post #25 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-20-2019, 01:57 PM Thread Starter
 
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The price market was based on a generation that grew up with these cars and either owned one when younger or knew a buddy who owned one. Back in the "day", these cars were throw-aways just like today. You did not buy or own a GTO so you could go "Sunday" driving with it. They were driven hard so engines, transmissions, and rear-ends blew up and why so many are not numbers matching. Depending on age, it was a matter of selling or scrapping the car versus replacing parts because it was an old car. They usually went through a number of owners and would continue the downward spiral of deterioration as each owner beat on the car some more, smashed or dented it up, or replaced the factory parts with some kind of better "speed" parts and threw the factory stuff in the garbage. Then by this time when driveline parts broke, it wasn't practical to invest any money into the heap, so you called the junk man. If by chance you were one who did maintain your car by replacing parts and doing tune-ups and oil changes, you may have lived in the northern snow belt and they rotted out from underneath you due to the salt spread on the roads during winter - and it was from these rotted away cars you got some of the better running engine found in junk yards to replace the blown one you had under the hood.

So these cars became memories just like all of us "car guys" have. Fast forward to a generation that grew up in this era and has matured and has the liquid assets to either purchase the GTO they wished they could have bought but never had the money or they were looking to replace the GTO they used to own and all those good memories they had in the car. So the demand for the GTO's (if you were a Pontiac guy) was created by a generation that saw these cars come off the showroom floor and had the cash to start buying them at whatever cost. Thanks to the internet, Ebay, Craigslist, car shows, many of the muscle car books & magazines, the Mecum and Jackson-Barret auctions, and those who flip cars, prices skyrocketed due in part to supply and demand and the knowledge of how many were built and what was "rare." Those ultra "rare" GTO cars that fetch absurd prices steer the market for all those lesser "rare" GTO examples. Then those prices dictate what a Lemans or Tempest can fetch because they can easily be cloned, tributed, or become a recreation (new term at the auction block!). This in turn drives up the price of a GTO, Lemans, or Tempest that is just a rotted shell - because the GTO demand has generated a host of reproduction parts to supply the restoration or rebuild of the Pontiac A-body whether a true GTO or not and the stupid prices of a rusted hulk are measured by the potential that a fully restored, cloned, tribute, or recreation GTO can fetch. The demand has sent NOS and used parts to absurd levels if you can find them because these cars are 45-55 years old and parts are just not there anymore.

So pricing went through the roof as these nostalgia muscle car era generational kids are now mature older adults who were successful in life and have the extra cash to throw around - kids all grown up and moved away, house & cars all paid off, two incomes rapidly building up the savings/retirement account, etc.. - extra $cash available and the GTO is seen as an investment in buying low, enjoy driving it, then sell again at a higher price when the time comes and increase our retirement fund when we go into the old folks home. This thinking set-off the investors just like any land investor, home investor, stocks/bond investor, etc.. It also makes a great way to "hide" money or write the purchase off as a company expense.

But, the generation that lived with these cars has grown past their prime - they are old. Sales has slowed down because those who wanted and could afford to buy these cars have done so. The supply of buyers that drove the prices up is drying up. Those who saw these cars as investments in flipping a profit are not finding buyers because the supply of buyers has diminished - so demand & prices drop, and many will lose money if their aim was to hold out and sell high as that day is over.

I watched a recent auction on TV. The statement was that there were over 1800 cars at the auction and about 1700 of those were resto-mods. Many pick-ups hit the auction. I saw a 1940 Mercury coupe that appeared to be restored & original go for $21,000. I remember when you could not touch one in the same condition for $40,000. I saw this with the Model A as a generation that grew up with these cars wanted to have one. Prices skyrocketed for original coupes & convertibles and parts suppliers began cranking out repro parts for restoration. Then a company called Shay Motors began to crank out new reproductions in 1980 under license from Ford. The company eventually produced 5,000 Model A's of his 10,000 goal before going bankrupts in 1982. A perfect example of supply and demand and how the skyrocketing price of an original Model A's on the open market made reproducing then feasible and allowed people to buy a car that was new with updated mechanics and with a warranty over an original that needed restoration. Prices for the Model A dropped as demand dropped and parts suppliers dried up. In today's generation, who would even consider restoring a Model A? In come the hot rodders to take over, just like the generation we are seeing now who insert the Chevy LS3 where a 400CI used to sit, or swap out the 4-speed for a 5-speed OD, the TH-400 for a modern automatic with OD, coil over suspensions, Dakota digital in place of original gauges, 17/18" rims, etc.. into a GTO body.

So the demand for the 1964-1974 GTO will slump and prices drop. Parts suppliers will dry up with just a few remaining. Resto-mods will be far more common than original and expect to see fewer and fewer with original drivetrains as the LS engine takes over and the drivetrains are "modernized" along with all the other upgraded and contemporary pieces as seen through the next generation of car enthusiasts who will put their spin on our memories of these cars. It is inevitable. Resistance is futile. We of the late 70's and early 80's generation are getting old and the next generation of car enthusiasts that are maturing is right behind us looking to buy and restore the cars they grew up with and have little interest in what was once original, and now obsolete to them.
Jim we don't agree on much but this is one thing you just wrote that I do .

But, the generation that lived with these cars has grown past their prime - they are old. Sales has slowed down because those who wanted and could afford to buy these cars have done so. The supply of buyers that drove the prices up is drying up. Those who saw these cars as investments in flipping a profit are not finding buyers because the supply of buyers has diminished - so demand & prices drop, and many will lose money if their aim was to hold out and sell high as that day is over.

Just to add as I have stated I have been in barns with enough NOS and used parts to build 50 GTO.and Trans Am But will they sell? No. I have no idea what will happen to them . Kind of sad . Doug
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post #26 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-20-2019, 05:01 PM
 
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So what makes the second generation GTOs different form the muscle car market in general?
I can see the entire muscle car market getting softer as based on the commentary here, not just the 68 to 72 GTOs…..as the Hagerty article indicates.
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post #27 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-20-2019, 08:05 PM
 
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Just saw a 68 base hardtop gto 400 4 speed go for $60.000 on barrett jackson. And seen other cars struggle.
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post #28 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-21-2019, 11:30 AM
 
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Im 21 years old and am growing up in the wrong generation. I love Big blocks and carburetion. I understand the simplicity and raw power of old school muscle. The sound of new "muscle" cars is so unappealing to me. Just bought a 69 lemans race car with a 400 stroker motor and wouldn't ever think to swap an LS in it. Ponchos rule and hopefully my son one day will feel the same.
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post #29 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-21-2019, 04:20 PM
 
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I’m ok with evolution. Nothing will change the song of 3x2 going through straight exhaust. It’s magical. My son will know that.

In the same way, a Tesla is an extraordinary engineering marvel. Take a highway curve going 80 on autopilot and you can’t help but shake your head. And Elon tipped his hat to the past by having Atari embedded in the ui. He knows his roots too.

The automotive experience.
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post #30 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-21-2019, 05:29 PM
 
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Just saw a 68 base hardtop gto 400 4 speed go for $60.000 on barrett jackson. And seen other cars struggle.
No way a base GTO would be worth $60,000. I saw a Mecum auction that took place last week in Florida. 1969 GTO done up as a "recreation." Sold for $35,000. Still about $13,000 too high in my book, but it was more realistic. These auctions roll cars across and have people, perhaps their own employees, or a buddy in the audience, bid cars up (this is done on Ebay as well). For $60,000 that car was a "plant" and aimed at getting other GTO values up. If you told me it was an original restored Ram Air car, OK, I am onboard, but a base GTO.......I smell a rat.

My brother told me a story of the exact same nature from a man who was at an auction and did buy a car he was looking to get. He paid attention and watched just who exactly was bidding and who he might be up against. He noticed #136 kept bidding on all the cars and pushing car sale prices higher and never purchased a one of them. Th guy observing this knew what he was doing - forcing prices higher. So when his car that he wanted was getting closer to roll over the auction block, he went over to the guy and told him he knew what he was doing and that he was not a "true" bidder and that when the car that the man wanted rolled over the auction block that he had better not play any of his games and boost the price or he was going to lodge a complaint and expose him. When the car rolled over the auction block, #136 sat quietly and did not make a bid and the buyer got his car at a fair price that he was looking to pay.

This is not the first time I have heard this as another acquaintance who watches these auctions pointed out a similar observation.

So don't think these kinds of games are not played out to raise prices.
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  Pontiac GTO Forum > The 1964-1974 Pontiac Tempest, Lemans & GTO > 1964-1974 Tempest, Lemans & GTO General Discussion

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