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If new ones are going for about 25k with 2.9% financing, used ones should be going for about 20k in my opinion.

I think a three year old 04 with about 25k miles should go for about 12k in about two years.
 

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Not trying to piss in your cornflakes or start a flame war (its the CPA in me coming out), but look at the numbers. There was a new GTO on ebay with a buy it now of 24100, another at 24500. That is for a brand new car. GM sent me something saying my GM card rebate of 900 is worth 2000 if I buy by 12/31. that means I could get a new one for under 23000! whoa, great deal on a new car.

That 24/25k price is the basis used car purchares are going to use. Thats why american cars dont keep their value. they are based on sticker price, not sales price.

Mazda ran an ad in about 1983 showing how the KBB on the RX-7 was better than the competition. Problem with the ad was you couldnt get a RX-7 for sticker for the first two years. The KBB value was based on sticker not what they went out the door for.

think about it, a three year old car goes for about 50% of selling price. thats where I got my 12k figure from. If you cant get 21k for a one year old one with next to no miles (check ebays completed sales), are you going to get 16k for a three year old one.
 

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My 2 cents

Take 50% of the sticker and you have a realistic resale value in 3 years. So my guess is $15-16K. I think $12K is way too low. Heck, my last 3 cars have held their better than that.

This is exactly why I leased. My residual value was $19K after 3 years for the A4. Not a fan of leasing, but with the residual value up in the air (sales, new 05, future of car, etc), I chose to lease my first car.

Many other factors contribute to the low re-sale value of american cars. In my eye, it is more of a factor of supply/demand. GM and Ford flood the market.

If I can buy one for $12K in 3 years, sign me up! I will make it my second vehicle, get the six speed, and modify the engine.
 

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catchmeifucan said:
My 2 cents

Take 50% of the sticker and you have a realistic resale value in 3 years. So my guess is $15-16K. I think $12K is way too low. Heck, my last 3 cars have held their better than that.

This is exactly why I leased. My residual value was $19K after 3 years for the A4. Not a fan of leasing, but with the residual value up in the air (sales, new 05, future of car, etc), I chose to lease my first car.

Many other factors contribute to the low re-sale value of american cars. In my eye, it is more of a factor of supply/demand. GM and Ford flood the market.

If I can buy one for $12K in 3 years, sign me up! I will make it my second vehicle, get the six speed, and modify the engine.
Only problem with your logic is that you paid close to sticker for your last three cars. a 33k GTO is now going for 24K. take 50% of what the car is going for and you get your 12k.

I paid about 27k for my Aurora with a 37k sticker. two years later it isnt selling for 18k, on cars.com they are selling for 13k from dealers.

I think GTOs will be selling for 12k by private individuals, and 15k at dealers in two to three years. If I dont get my price for my Z28 I will keep it for another two or three years and sell it for nothing to buy a used GTO.
 

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Look at the high bids on used 04 GTO's on Ebay now! They barely draw 50% of msrp today. You might not want to think about 2 years from now.
 

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drmustang said:
Look at the high bids on used 04 GTO's on Ebay now! They barely draw 50% of msrp today. You might not want to think about 2 years from now.
I purchased a 1996 ImpallaSS for around $24K in late 95, the production total for this car was around 42,000 and 3 years later the car was selling for around $14k. Today the average sale price through trader-online is $16k. The highest price is $50k and the lowest is around $4k. Cars comparable to mine are selling for $24 to $26.

The 04 GTO had a production total of around 12,000. In my opinion the car was not advertised because Holden could not meet a high demand for the car and the maximum output for this car was 18,000 in the Elizabeth plant.

GM realized their mistake of trying to produce this car on the same production schedule as the cars produced in the US. They did not factor the 3-4 month deliverly time until this year. The downfall of this mistake, the 3rd quarter 04 GTO's are arriving to the US in the 4th quarter. The same time their competitors and other GM dealers are selling the 05 model line. Now the dealers are trying to move this car with special incentives and reduced prices. This effects the retail price of the used 04 GTO's, why buy a used 04 GTO for $28k when you can have a new one for $24k. The 05 production is now set for 12,000 because the 06 production will start in May of 05 in time for the 06 GTO's to be in the showroom for the 4th quarter 05.

In 3 months the 04 GTO prices will start to rise, in 3 years they will probably be in the high $20's. Today is a buyer's market for this car, remember only 12,000 04's GTO are available. When production comes to the US in 07, more than likely the car's power will be scaled down. The car will undergo some major changes including the Zeta rear wheel platform with AWD. The car will be mass produced (30,000 to 60,000 per year) and advertising from pontiac will be in full speed for the GTO.

The 04, 05 and 06 Holden GTO's will be in high demand and bringing top prices, the problem I see today is because you can't move 04 automobiles in the 4th quarter of 04.

The 67 GTO had a production of I believe around 97,000, today it's not uncommon to see this car sell for $25k to $50k.

This reply is my opinion,
 

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Very interesting 05GTO!

I did not buy my car as an investment, and I will probably keep it for a very long time, so per se it doesn't matter what the resale value does, but it is a little comforting that the price isn't going to just fall out the bottom, and I'd be better off defaulting on my loan. :rolleyes:

---Larry
 

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New 04's are avalilable for mid twenties today for reasons stated in previous posts and there are approx. 2,500 unsold units per GM. Anyone who thinks these same cars will sell for thousands more than that in 3 years is hopelessly out of touch with reality.
 

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If I financed more than 50% of my 01 Aurora I would be very upside down right now. I didn't buy it as an investment, I bought it as a car for the baby to puke in.

The Aurora was considered the best GM out there by enthusiasts in 01 for the three weeks between the introduction and announcement of Oldsmobiles death. Anyone that bought a 04 at sticker and tries to trade it in now will be in for a major hit. I tried to trade my Aurora in this summer. It would have gost me $600 a month to drive it 22k miles over 30 months. Thats after getting it for almost 10k off sticker. Leasing a new RL would have been cheaper.

GM dropped the ball big time with the 04. Make no mistake, I like the 04 and will smartbuy one this month if a buyer appears for my Z28.

The changes for 05 to meet customers wants should have been on the 04. I personally dont care much about the cosmetic & exhaust changes. There are very few used cars that appreciate in value. My 68 Firebird was worth about 10k seven years ago, today it is worth about 20k according to what I read. Nobody jumping to give me 20k. The GTO will be just another used car for at least a few years, just like my Z28. Today all the SS Camaros are just used cars.

Thats why I think the price of a clean 25k mile three year old 04 will be about 12k
 

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drmustang said:
New 04's are avalilable for mid twenties today for reasons stated in previous posts and there are approx. 2,500 unsold units per GM.
What is your source stating "2,500 unsold units"? I can't find that information. Check with AutoTrader.com and you will find the average sale price for a used 04 is a little over $28k.


drmustang said:
Anyone who thinks these same cars will sell for thousands more than that in 3 years is hopelessly out of touch with reality.

This car is not a mass produced 141,907 unit per year 2004 Ford Mustang. It is a limited collector's car. I have yet to see one in a parking lot or on any highway. When this car's available inventory is gone the laws of supply and demand will only appreciate the cars value.
 

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Dont mix up asking price with selling price. What people ask on autotrader has nothing to do with reality unless the goal is a value for insurance purposes.

A new 04 went for 24100 on eBay this week using buy it now. There is another new 04 on eBay for 24500.

A fellow on this board just got one for 24500 from a dealer. That means the car is no longer a 33190 car but a 24500 to 27000 car. Start there and depreciate. I dont think people are going to suddenly wake up in a few years and decide to pay a 5k premium for a used GTO over say a used mustang, or used BMW etc.

Usually a car that doesnt sell well when new doesnt suddenly appreciate in value a few years down the line. Think Edsel, Yugo, Marauder, Blackwood, etc.

I want 8500 for my Z28 6 sped with 42k miles, all the suspension and motor extras and three sets of rims & tires. If I list it on autotrader for 8500 doesnt mean it is worth say 7500 or that I will get 8500. The value is what it changes hands for.

Also, at 10,000 units a year the car is considered mass produced.

Here is an article from autoweek that should substantiate at least 12000 04s were produced.

Struggling Goat: Pontiac cuts output for limping GTO, looks to future
JASON STEIN | Automotive News
Posted Date: 11/22/04
PHOENIX -- After a year of disappointing sales, Pontiac is scaling back production of the 2005 Pontiac GTO, which was touted as a halo car for the brand.

Pontiac will cut GTO production by about 30 percent next year, from its 2004 target of 1,300 to 1,500 units a month to 1,000 a month in 2005.

Larry Pryg, marketing manager for Pontiac's premium mid-sized cars, admitted Pontiac did not conduct enough initial market research on the GTO, misallocated inventory and missed its initial estimate.

"We will adjust production levels, and 12,000 units a year seems right for this vehicle," Pryg said at a press event here.

Through October, Pontiac sold 9,487 GTOs in the United States. Pontiac is offering a $3,500 national cash rebate on 2004 models.

Earlier, dealers had complained that the GTO suffered from bland styling and a high sticker price, and lacked incentives.

Adjusting allocation

Pontiac said imprudent allocation to dealerships was a bigger factor in the slow start. Pontiac overloaded its inventory in the U.S. north-central region, allocating 40 percent of the rear-wheel-drive GTO's initial production to those states in the middle of winter, when the handling problems of rear-drive vehicles in snow are most apparent.

"We wanted to reward those dealers," Pryg said, "but we couldn't neglect the other parts of the country, such as the West Coast, where we didn't have enough in our 30-day supply."

Pryg said 30 percent of 2005 GTO inventory will be allocated to the north-central region. The rest will be dispersed across the country.

This month some dealers still were receiving 2004 GTOs. GM has promised its dealers that production on the 2005 GTO would finish three months earlier than last year.

As for issues of styling and price, Pontiac hopes a stable price and a larger engine will attract more buyers.

The 2005 GTO gets a new engine, the LS2 6.0-liter V-8 with 400 hp. The previous engine pumped out 350 hp. To the relief of traditionalists, an optional hood scoop has been added, along with dual exhaust.

Duane Earl, sales manager at Sawyers Pontiac in East Lansing, Mich., says early criticisms of the GTOs were unfounded.

"There was a lot of bad press about it not looking like the old GTOs of the 1960s and '70s, but that's not what it was supposed to be about," says Earl, who sold 22 GTOs last year and has one order for the new model. "I think now that it is out there and people know what it's about, it will be welcomed."

Next-generation GTO

GM has hinted that the next-generation GTO, scheduled to appear on the Zeta rear-drive architecture for the 2007 or 2008 model year, will be a large departure from the current model.

Pontiac hopes to position the GTO as its version of the Chevrolet Corvette - an aspirational vehicle that is the "soul of the brand," says Pontiac spokesman Jim Hopson.

Pryg said: "There is a real desire to make it striking. "We will start from scratch with something for U.S. tastes. We are going to stretch, but there will only be a few retro cues."

Pryg said that there may be an opportunity for more volume in the next model, "but that's not the first word out of our mouths right now."
This is from an August Autoweek saying there were 10,000 here at the end of July

Pontiac may offer an optional hood with air scoops as a way of clearing out 2004 GTOs still in stock before the improved 2005 model goes on sale. Dealers are having success selling GTOs fitted with aftermarket scoops, so the company may pull ahead the optional 2005 hood for 2004 models, says Pontiac-GMC general manager Jim Bunnell. Pontiac sold 3687 GTOs through June and has a 255-day (6100-vehicle) supply of ’04s.
 

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05gto-before I respond to your last post I would like to make it clear that I'm not a basher, quite the contrary. The new GTO's appeal to a small segment of the auto consuming public. I am one of those individuals. The clean euro styling, brute power and comfortable interior are what I am looking for. A new 05 will be in my driveway as soon as they can be purchased near invoice. There is no substitute for cubic inches which is demonstrated by preliminary 0-60 times which are outstanding. The HP and torque #'s on the 05's are sufficient to end any debates regarding the stang GT. I speak for many when calling attention to the fact that GM has pursued progressive design vs their rivals at Ford who elected to massage 35 year old details into a boxy configuration that can be produced within the limits of current governmental regulations and calling it retro. Gm is defining the point from which the sports/muscle cars will evolve with its C6 and GTO.
I can drive about one mile from my home and buy one or all of eight 04's for around 24.5k whether you believe it or not. If you don't believe me-look on Ebay at the buy it now prices. How could a used 04 possibly sell(not be worth) for 28K when you can take your pick of brand new for 3 or 4 thousand less. This is in-your-face obvious. These cars have no intrinsic collector appeal in the forseable future. 40 years from now is anyones guess. I share your car enthusiam. You might consider a long cold shower before you attempt to enlighten anyone else on the "worth" of these cars
 

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Tom,

I never said the 04 GTO was not mass produced, My statement was, "This car is not a mass produced 141,907 unit per year 2004 Ford Mustang."

If an assemble line is used for the manufacture of an automobile it is mass produced.

The current problem with the O4 GTO pricing is due to the late release of the last GTO's produced for 04. This is not an indicator of the future price of the car.
 

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drmustang said:
05gto-before I respond to your last post I would like to make it clear that I'm not a basher, quite the contrary. The new GTO's appeal to a small segment of the auto consuming public. I am one of those individuals. The clean euro styling, brute power and comfortable interior are what I am looking for. A new 05 will be in my driveway as soon as they can be purchased near invoice. There is no substitute for cubic inches which is demonstrated by preliminary 0-60 times which are outstanding. The HP and torque #'s on the 05's are sufficient to end any debates regarding the stang GT. I speak for many when calling attention to the fact that GM has pursued progressive design vs their rivals at Ford who elected to massage 35 year old details into a boxy configuration that can be produced within the limits of current governmental regulations and calling it retro. Gm is defining the point from which the sports/muscle cars will evolve with its C6 and GTO.
I can drive about one mile from my home and buy one or all of eight 04's for around 24.5k whether you believe it or not. If you don't believe me-look on Ebay at the buy it now prices. How could a used 04 possibly sell(not be worth) for 28K when you can take your pick of brand new for 3 or 4 thousand less. This is in-your-face obvious. These cars have no intrinsic collector appeal in the forseable future. 40 years from now is anyones guess. I share your car enthusiam. You might consider a long cold shower before you attempt to enlighten anyone else on the "worth" of these cars
I too am waiting on my 05 and it's your statement that is the basis for my argument, "The clean euro styling, brute power and comfortable interior are what I am looking for. A new 05 will be in my driveway as soon as they can be purchased near invoice. There is no substitute for cubic inches which is demonstrated by preliminary 0-60 times which are outstanding. The HP and torque #'s on the 05's are sufficient to end any debates regarding the stang GT."

GM has also admitted they made a mistake in the distribution of the GTO, the key market areas for the 05's will be the Southern states and California. In Georgia the cars are hard to find. I do not doubt some dealers have 3 or 4 04's on their lots.
 

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There is a Pontiac dealer located 1 mile from my home. They do not have 3 or 4 04's. They have 8! I would be more than willing to bet that they would pay your one way fare here if you bought one of them and drove it home.
 

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drmustang said:
There is a Pontiac dealer located 1 mile from my home. They do not have 3 or 4 04's. They have 8! I would be more than willing to bet that they would pay your one way fare here if you bought one of them and drove it home.
I'm curious, where do you live?

Do you attribute the slow sales for the 04 GTO to;

1) Bigger engine and better styling for 05,
2) Late deliverly of the 04's,
3) Delivered to the wrong parts of the US,
4) No advertising
5) All of the above
 
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