Only problem with your logic is that you paid close to sticker for your last three cars. a 33k GTO is now going for 24K. take 50% of what the car is going for and you get your 12k.catchmeifucan said:My 2 cents
Take 50% of the sticker and you have a realistic resale value in 3 years. So my guess is $15-16K. I think $12K is way too low. Heck, my last 3 cars have held their better than that.
This is exactly why I leased. My residual value was $19K after 3 years for the A4. Not a fan of leasing, but with the residual value up in the air (sales, new 05, future of car, etc), I chose to lease my first car.
Many other factors contribute to the low re-sale value of american cars. In my eye, it is more of a factor of supply/demand. GM and Ford flood the market.
If I can buy one for $12K in 3 years, sign me up! I will make it my second vehicle, get the six speed, and modify the engine.
I purchased a 1996 ImpallaSS for around $24K in late 95, the production total for this car was around 42,000 and 3 years later the car was selling for around $14k. Today the average sale price through trader-online is $16k. The highest price is $50k and the lowest is around $4k. Cars comparable to mine are selling for $24 to $26.drmustang said:Look at the high bids on used 04 GTO's on Ebay now! They barely draw 50% of msrp today. You might not want to think about 2 years from now.
What is your source stating "2,500 unsold units"? I can't find that information. Check with AutoTrader.com and you will find the average sale price for a used 04 is a little over $28k.drmustang said:New 04's are avalilable for mid twenties today for reasons stated in previous posts and there are approx. 2,500 unsold units per GM.
drmustang said:Anyone who thinks these same cars will sell for thousands more than that in 3 years is hopelessly out of touch with reality.
This is from an August Autoweek saying there were 10,000 here at the end of JulyStruggling Goat: Pontiac cuts output for limping GTO, looks to future
JASON STEIN | Automotive News
Posted Date: 11/22/04
PHOENIX -- After a year of disappointing sales, Pontiac is scaling back production of the 2005 Pontiac GTO, which was touted as a halo car for the brand.
Pontiac will cut GTO production by about 30 percent next year, from its 2004 target of 1,300 to 1,500 units a month to 1,000 a month in 2005.
Larry Pryg, marketing manager for Pontiac's premium mid-sized cars, admitted Pontiac did not conduct enough initial market research on the GTO, misallocated inventory and missed its initial estimate.
"We will adjust production levels, and 12,000 units a year seems right for this vehicle," Pryg said at a press event here.
Through October, Pontiac sold 9,487 GTOs in the United States. Pontiac is offering a $3,500 national cash rebate on 2004 models.
Earlier, dealers had complained that the GTO suffered from bland styling and a high sticker price, and lacked incentives.
Pontiac said imprudent allocation to dealerships was a bigger factor in the slow start. Pontiac overloaded its inventory in the U.S. north-central region, allocating 40 percent of the rear-wheel-drive GTO's initial production to those states in the middle of winter, when the handling problems of rear-drive vehicles in snow are most apparent.
"We wanted to reward those dealers," Pryg said, "but we couldn't neglect the other parts of the country, such as the West Coast, where we didn't have enough in our 30-day supply."
Pryg said 30 percent of 2005 GTO inventory will be allocated to the north-central region. The rest will be dispersed across the country.
This month some dealers still were receiving 2004 GTOs. GM has promised its dealers that production on the 2005 GTO would finish three months earlier than last year.
As for issues of styling and price, Pontiac hopes a stable price and a larger engine will attract more buyers.
The 2005 GTO gets a new engine, the LS2 6.0-liter V-8 with 400 hp. The previous engine pumped out 350 hp. To the relief of traditionalists, an optional hood scoop has been added, along with dual exhaust.
Duane Earl, sales manager at Sawyers Pontiac in East Lansing, Mich., says early criticisms of the GTOs were unfounded.
"There was a lot of bad press about it not looking like the old GTOs of the 1960s and '70s, but that's not what it was supposed to be about," says Earl, who sold 22 GTOs last year and has one order for the new model. "I think now that it is out there and people know what it's about, it will be welcomed."
GM has hinted that the next-generation GTO, scheduled to appear on the Zeta rear-drive architecture for the 2007 or 2008 model year, will be a large departure from the current model.
Pontiac hopes to position the GTO as its version of the Chevrolet Corvette - an aspirational vehicle that is the "soul of the brand," says Pontiac spokesman Jim Hopson.
Pryg said: "There is a real desire to make it striking. "We will start from scratch with something for U.S. tastes. We are going to stretch, but there will only be a few retro cues."
Pryg said that there may be an opportunity for more volume in the next model, "but that's not the first word out of our mouths right now."
Pontiac may offer an optional hood with air scoops as a way of clearing out 2004 GTOs still in stock before the improved 2005 model goes on sale. Dealers are having success selling GTOs fitted with aftermarket scoops, so the company may pull ahead the optional 2005 hood for 2004 models, says Pontiac-GMC general manager Jim Bunnell. Pontiac sold 3687 GTOs through June and has a 255-day (6100-vehicle) supply of ’04s.
I too am waiting on my 05 and it's your statement that is the basis for my argument, "The clean euro styling, brute power and comfortable interior are what I am looking for. A new 05 will be in my driveway as soon as they can be purchased near invoice. There is no substitute for cubic inches which is demonstrated by preliminary 0-60 times which are outstanding. The HP and torque #'s on the 05's are sufficient to end any debates regarding the stang GT."drmustang said:05gto-before I respond to your last post I would like to make it clear that I'm not a basher, quite the contrary. The new GTO's appeal to a small segment of the auto consuming public. I am one of those individuals. The clean euro styling, brute power and comfortable interior are what I am looking for. A new 05 will be in my driveway as soon as they can be purchased near invoice. There is no substitute for cubic inches which is demonstrated by preliminary 0-60 times which are outstanding. The HP and torque #'s on the 05's are sufficient to end any debates regarding the stang GT. I speak for many when calling attention to the fact that GM has pursued progressive design vs their rivals at Ford who elected to massage 35 year old details into a boxy configuration that can be produced within the limits of current governmental regulations and calling it retro. Gm is defining the point from which the sports/muscle cars will evolve with its C6 and GTO.
I can drive about one mile from my home and buy one or all of eight 04's for around 24.5k whether you believe it or not. If you don't believe me-look on Ebay at the buy it now prices. How could a used 04 possibly sell(not be worth) for 28K when you can take your pick of brand new for 3 or 4 thousand less. This is in-your-face obvious. These cars have no intrinsic collector appeal in the forseable future. 40 years from now is anyones guess. I share your car enthusiam. You might consider a long cold shower before you attempt to enlighten anyone else on the "worth" of these cars
I'm curious, where do you live?drmustang said:There is a Pontiac dealer located 1 mile from my home. They do not have 3 or 4 04's. They have 8! I would be more than willing to bet that they would pay your one way fare here if you bought one of them and drove it home.